Guide · 3 min read
Glossary
- Power rating
- A team’s strength in points: its expected margin against an average team in the dataset on a neutral field. The gap between two ratings is the basis for a projected margin.
- Rank
- Position by power rating within a team’s own division. All divisions share one rating scale, so ratings compare across divisions even though ranks do not.
- Résumé rank
- Position by wins above benchmark within the division: a measure of accomplishment rather than strength.
- Wins above benchmark
- A team’s wins minus the wins the division’s 25th-best team would expect against the same schedule at the same venues.
- Quality win
- A win over an opponent rated at or above that benchmark team.
- Bad loss
- A loss in a game the team was at least a 75% favorite to win.
- Schedule strength
- The weighted average power rating of every opponent a team has played.
- Margin
- Average points scored minus points allowed per game.
- Projected margin
- The expected final margin of a game, from the two ratings plus home field. Shown as “Miami by 7.5”.
- Win probability
- The chance a team wins, given its projected margin and how widely real results scatter around projections.
- Upset
- A win by a team the model gave 35% or less before kickoff.
- Out of sample
- Graded only on games the model had not seen: every projection uses results from earlier weeks.
- FBS
- Football Bowl Subdivision, the top level of Division I and the division eligible for the College Football Playoff.
- FCS
- Football Championship Subdivision, the second level of Division I, with its own playoff.
- Division II and Division III
- The NCAA’s other two football divisions, each with its own championship. Division III schools do not offer athletic scholarships.
- Group of Six
- The FBS conferences outside the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, and Sun Belt.