Picks · Week 10 · 2026
Week 10 picks and results
Week 10 projections and final scores. Historical reconstructions use only earlier periods; a recorded publication is identified separately when evidence exists.
Historical projections are not automatically a record of picks published before kickoff. Local builds reconstruct missing history without creating publication evidence. See prediction performance for separate samples, baseline comparisons, and limitations.
Games projected
63
FBS games this week
Week record
40-23
63% of winners picked
Season projections
73%
1,913 of 2,613 winners, all divisions; may include reconstructed history
Average miss
14.5 pts
Projected vs. actual margin, same season sample
Every game
Tuesday, November 3
Miami (OH) by 3.4
BUF 43%57% M-OH
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Buffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31Missed
Wednesday, November 4
Massachusetts by 8.7
BALL 32%68% MASS
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Ball State 30, Massachusetts 31Correct
Toledo by 24.2
TOL 90%10% SAC
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Toledo 20, Sacramento State 17Correct
Central Michigan by 2.3
CMU 55%45% EMU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Central Michigan 35, Eastern Michigan 7Correct
Thursday, November 5
UTSA by 9.8
UTSA 70%30% FAU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: UTSA 29, Florida Atlantic 60MissedUpset
James Madison by 17.9
JMU 83%17% USM
Reconstructed backtest
Final: James Madison 54, Southern Miss 23Correct
Friday, November 6
SMU by 7.2
VT 35%65% SMU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Virginia Tech 28, SMU 51Correct
South Florida by 7.0
USF 64%36% ECU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: South Florida 17, East Carolina 20Missed
New Mexico by 9.9
UNM 70%30% NEV
Reconstructed backtest
Final: New Mexico 31, Nevada 3Correct
Saturday, November 7
Baylor by 11.6
ISU 27%73% BAY
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Iowa State 31, Baylor 42Correct
Florida State by 4.3
FSU 59%41% BC
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Florida State 31, Boston College 24Correct
North Carolina by 5.8
UNC 62%38% CONN
Reconstructed backtest
Final: North Carolina 38, UConn 21Correct
Oklahoma State by 8.1
OKST 67%34% KSU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Oklahoma State 66, Kansas State 28Correct
Coastal Carolina by 16.5
ODU 19%81% CCU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Old Dominion 21, Coastal Carolina 8MissedUpset
App State by 2.1
GAST 45%55% APP
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Georgia State 39, App State 23Missed
South Carolina by 7.7
TA&M 34%66% SC
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Texas A&M 9, South Carolina 17Correct
Arkansas State by 19.5
ULM 15%85% ARST
Reconstructed backtest
Final: UL Monroe 19, Arkansas State 17MissedUpset
Delaware by 0.9
DEL 52%48% KENN
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Delaware 40, Kennesaw State 42Missed
Houston by 15.0
CIN 21%79% HOU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Cincinnati 24, Houston 31Correct
Wake Forest by 40.0
MRMK 2%98% WAKE
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Merrimack 0, Wake Forest 77Correct
Ohio State by 10.7
ORE 29%71% OSU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Oregon 41, Ohio State 28MissedUpset
Washington by 1.4
PSU 47%53% WASH
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Penn State 28, Washington 25Missed
Georgia Southern by 12.9
MRSH 25%75% GASO
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Marshall 13, Georgia Southern 49Correct
Middle Tennessee by 6.7
WKU 36%64% MTSU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Western Kentucky 42, Middle Tennessee 51Correct
North Texas by 23.3
RICE 11%89% UNT
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Rice 23, North Texas 52Correct
San José State by 18.9
NIU 16%84% SJSU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Northern Illinois 19, San José State 30Correct
Florida International by 11.5
MOST 27%73% FIU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Missouri State 20, Florida International 23Correct
Louisiana Tech by 8.4
LT 67%33% TROY
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Louisiana Tech 41, Troy 17Correct
Mississippi State by 12.9
VAN 25%75% MSST
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Vanderbilt 25, Mississippi State 23MissedUpset
Louisiana by 11.5
USA 27%73% UL
Reconstructed backtest
Final: South Alabama 26, Louisiana 28Correct
Boise State by 23.4
BOIS 89%11% CSU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Boise State 64, Colorado State 38Correct
Jacksonville State by 25.1
SHSU 9%91% JXST
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Sam Houston 14, Jacksonville State 47Correct
Arizona State by 5.8
COLO 38%62% ASU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Colorado 10, Arizona State 20Correct
Louisville by 20.7
LOU 86%14% GT
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Louisville 44, Georgia Tech 17Correct
Notre Dame by 1.7
MIA 46%54% ND
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Miami 24, Notre Dame 31Correct
Michigan by 9.6
MSU 31%69% MICH
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Michigan State 15, Michigan 6MissedUpset
Northwestern by 5.2
IOWA 39%61% NU
Reconstructed backtest
Final: Iowa 24, Northwestern 10Missed
Liberty by 25.9
LIB 92%8% NMSU
Recorded before kickoff
Final: Liberty 30, New Mexico State 14Correct
Texas Tech by 16.7
WVU 19%81% TTU
Recorded before kickoff
Final: West Virginia 48, Texas Tech 53Correct
Fresno State by 4.9
FRES 60%40% USU
Recorded before kickoff
Final: Fresno State 10, Utah State 17Missed
Oregon State by 5.4
TXST 39%61% ORST
Recorded before kickoff
Final: Texas State 42, Oregon State 21Missed
